Mohammed bin Salman Is More At... Note

Mohammed bin Salman Is More At Risk Internally Than From Houthi Attacks

Ansarallah's attacks on Saudi infrastructure, like the Riyadh International Airport incident, are escalating regional tensions. These actions, mirroring Iran's strategy, aim to exploit Saudi Arabia's vulnerability in its energy sector. Such attacks could lead to significant economic damage in Saudi Arabia, potentially derailing its Vision 2030 projects. The traditional Saudi reliance on sectarian narratives against Iran is losing its effectiveness, even among regional Sunnis. Ansarallah's movement is ideologically diverse, encompassing various Islamic schools and social classes, not merely a Shia proxy. Without capitulating to Ansarallah's demands, Saudi Arabia faces a cascading economic crisis that could destabilize the entire Gulf region. However, the author posits that Mohammed bin Salman's greatest threat comes not from Yemen, but from within his own kingdom. His consolidation of power and alienation of traditional tribal structures have created internal dissent. This internal dissatisfaction, coupled with a fear of military coups within the armed forces, poses a more significant risk than external attacks. A shift in tribal loyalties and historical social contracts is occurring, potentially leading to a realignment against the current leadership. The author suggests that a downfall of the al-Saud family rule could trigger a major geopolitical reorientation in West Asia. The region's current borders, largely drawn by colonial powers, are described as being at an inflection point. The US response to these escalating events remains uncertain, with various scenarios of wider conflict or regional instability being considered. The article concludes by noting significant Iranian military exercises and the potential for an Israeli-American escalation, underscoring the region's imminent changes.
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