Axios
Follow
"Nauseously optimistic": Anxious House Democrats brace for midterm Election Day
Democrats are experiencing a mix of "nauseous optimism" and "guarded optimism" regarding their chances of retaking the House. Despite favorable polls, they fear a polling error or last-minute disaster, having been burned in past elections. The party is targeting numerous Republican-held seats, even those that heavily favored Trump in 2024, reflecting their bullish outlook. Some Democrats anticipate winning 20-25 seats, with a landslide scenario pushing pickups closer to 40-50, which would be historic. However, mid-decade redistricting in Republican-controlled Southern states is expected to cut into these gains. The GOP is likely to flip redrawn seats in Tennessee and Louisiana. Democrats also express nervousness about incumbents in new districts, including key figures in Florida and Alabama. While expressing confidence, Democrats also offer reasons for tempered expectations, citing past polling inaccuracies and concerns about election tampering. Republicans, in turn, accuse Democrats of using corrupt tactics like stacking ballots and question their radical policies. Democrats worry about an eleventh-hour spending spree by Republican donors and super PACs, which could significantly boost GOP campaigns. Race-specific dynamics, such as individual candidate weaknesses or insufficient national party investment, are also impacting certain competitive races. Despite these anxieties, Democrats are committed to running hard through every election.