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Pipelines For Peacekeepers? Trump's Trade-Off That Could Freeze The Ukraine War
A proposed peace scenario suggests a potential ceasefire in the Ukraine conflict. This scenario involves the US pressuring the EU and Ukraine to accept Russian energy imports through US-controlled pipelines. Simultaneously, Russia would agree to European forces deploying to Ukraine without US Article 5 protection.Ukraine might receive Article 5-like security guarantees from a Trump envoy for Putin. This could be part of a package deal, as Article 5's mutual aid aspect is already practiced. Trump might also offer energy-related incentives to Russia.Creative energy diplomacy by the US could lead to the release of frozen Russian funds. In exchange, the US would gain stakes in Russian pipelines as a safeguard for renewed exports to the EU. The global energy crisis could serve as a pretext for the US to reduce its own exports to the EU, compelling them to seek Russian energy.Restored economic interdependence between Russia and the EU could mitigate Germany's remilitarization concerns. Russia's leverage over the German economy would deter it from crossing Russian red lines. Ukraine resuming Russian energy imports could stabilize the emerging European order with reduced US involvement.US stakes in Russian energy could also deter Ukraine from attacking these resources, minimizing future conflict risks. The US-supervised resumption of Russian energy exports to the EU and Ukraine, coupled with sanctions relief, could foster a new post-war Russian-US Strategic Partnership. This might persuade Putin to allow European NATO forces in Ukraine in exchange for concessions.These European forces would deploy without US Article 5 coverage, thus limiting the risk of a direct US-Russia war. Their presence would primarily serve as psychological reassurance for Ukraine. Both sides would face sensitive compromises, with the US potentially mediating for post-war stability.This could then pave the way for a new European security architecture. This architecture might be built through future arms control and related discussions. The scenario hinges on significant concessions from both Russia and the West.