Pollsters again missed the mark in a high-stakes Midwest election, as Democrat David Crowley surprisingly defeated socialist Francesca Hong in Wisconsin's gubernatorial primary. Surveys conducted a week before the primary failed to capture the rapid shifts in the race, where Crowley was rapidly gaining momentum. Previously, two polls had indicated Hong leading Crowley by approximately 20 points, yet Crowley ultimately won by a narrow half a percentage point. This upset followed a similar pattern in Michigan, where polls had also overestimated progressive strength. These misses highlight the limitations of surveys in capturing voter sentiment over short periods in dynamic races. Even Crowley's own pollster had him nearly 20 points down just days before the primary. The final month of the primary was chaotic, marked by establishment efforts to stop Hong and two candidate withdrawals. Crowley himself had exited and then re-entered the race to challenge Hong. The last week saw Hong struggling to explain past social media comments about "canceling Thanksgiving," leading to late-deciding voters flocking to Crowley. Experts explained that polls are snapshots in time, and many were taken too early to reflect the significant movement in support for Crowley. Additionally, modeling open primaries, where voters can participate in either party's primary, proves challenging for pollsters due to uncertainty about who will turn out. Some speculated that Republican voters might have crossed over in Wisconsin's open primary to vote against Hong. Furthermore, Hong's lack of TV advertising in the final days prevented her from countering attacks and delivering a positive message, potentially costing her the election.