Sam Altman

The website blog.samaltman.com is the personal blog of Sam Altman, an American entrepreneur, investor, and programmer. He is best known as the former president of Y Combinator, a well-known startup accelerator, and the co-founder and former CEO of Loopt, a location-based social networking service. The blog features a collection of articles and essays written by Sam Altman on various topics, including technology, entrepreneurship, startups, and personal growth. The content is informal and conversational, offering insights into Altman's thoughts and experiences as a successful entrepreneur and investor. Some of the topics covered on the blog include startup advice, product development, fundraising, and the future of technology. Altman also shares his personal experiences and lessons learned from his time at Y Combinator and Loopt. Overall, the blog is a valuable resource for entrepreneurs, startup founders, and anyone interested in technology and innovation. It offers practical advice, insights, and perspectives from someone who has been successful in the tech industry.

Thread Of Notes

Growth in the use of AI services has been astonishing; we expect it to be even more astonishing going forward. As AI gets smarter, access to AI will be a fundamental driver of the economy, and maybe eventually something we consider a fundamental human right. Almost everyone will want more AI working on their behalf. To be able to deliver what the world needs—for inference compute to run these models, and for training compute to keep making them better and better—we are putting the groundwork in place to be able to significantly expand our ambitions for building out AI infrastructure. If AI stays on the trajectory that we think it will, then amazing things will be possible. Maybe with 10 gigawatts of compute, AI can figure out how to cure cancer. Or with 10 gigawatts of compute, AI can figure out how to provide customized tutoring to every student on earth. If we are limited by compute, we’ll have to choose which one to prioritize; no one wants to make that choice, so let’s go build. Our vision is simple: we want to create a factory that can produce a gigawatt of new AI infrastructure every week. The execution of this will be extremely difficult; it will take us years to get to this milestone and it will require innovation at every level of the stack, from chips to power to building to robotics. But we have been hard at work on this and believe it is possible. In our opinion, it will be the coolest and most important infrastructure project ever. We are particularly excited to build a lot of this in the US; right now, other countries are building things like chips fabs and new energy production much faster than we are, and we want to help turn that tide. Over the next couple of months, we’ll be talking about some of our plans and the partners we are working with to make this a reality. Later this year, we’ll talk about how we are financing it; given how increasing compute is the literal key to increasing revenue, we have some interesting new ideas.
AI has gotten remarkably better in recent years; ChatGPT can do amazing things that we take for granted. This is as it should be, and is the story of human progress. But behind the blinking circle, nicely abstracted away, is the greatest story of human ingenuity I have ever seen. A lot of people have worked unbelievably hard to discover how to build something that most experts thought was impossible on this timeframe, and to build a company to deliver products at massive scale to let people benefit from it. Most people who use ChatGPT will never think about the people that put so much work into it, which is totally ok, but just to take a minute of your time… There are two people I'd like to mention that OpenAI would not be OpenAI without: Jakub Pachocki and Szymon Sidor. Time and again, they combine research and engineering to solve impossible problems. They have not gotten enough public credit, but they decided to scale up RL as a baseline to see where it broke when the conventional wisdom was that it didn't scale which led to our Dota result, built much of the infrastructure that enabled a lot of our scientific discoveries, led GPT-4 pretraining, drove together with Ilya and Lukasz the initial ideas that led to the reasoning breakthrough, and have made significant progress exploring new paradigms. Jakub is our chief scientist. He once described Szymon as “indefatigable”, which is as perfect of a use of that word as I have ever heard. OpenAI has not yet thrown a problem at them they have not been able to solve; I have heard about partnerships like there is research labs of the past where two people are able to complement each other so well, but it is very special to get to watch it unfold over the years.
Our mission is to ensure that Artificial General Intelligence benefits all of humanity. AGI is a system that can tackle complex problems at a human level in many fields, and it is considered the next tool in human progress. The steady march of human innovation has brought unprecedented levels of prosperity and improvements to people's lives, and AGI is expected to accelerate this progress. In a decade, everyone on earth may be capable of accomplishing more than the most impactful person can today.The economics of AI development are characterized by rapid progress, with the intelligence of an AI model roughly equal to the log of the resources used to train and run it. The cost to use a given level of AI falls about 10x every 12 months, and the socioeconomic value of linearly increasing intelligence is super-exponential in nature. These trends are expected to continue, leading to significant impacts on society.AI agents, such as virtual co-workers, are being rolled out, and they will eventually be capable of doing most things a human can do in their field. The world will not change all at once, but the long-term changes to our society and economy will be huge. Agency, willfulness, and determination will be extremely valuable, and AGI will enable individual people to have more impact than ever before.The impact of AGI will be uneven, with some industries changing very little, while scientific progress will likely be much faster than it is today. The price of many goods will eventually fall dramatically, and the price of luxury goods and limited resources may rise. Public policy and collective opinion on how to integrate AGI into society matter a lot, and ensuring that the benefits of AGI are broadly distributed is critical.The balance of power between capital and labor could easily get messed up, and this may require early intervention. Ideas like giving everyone on Earth a "compute budget" to use AI or driving the cost of intelligence as low as possible may be necessary to ensure that everyone has access to unlimited genius.
There are two things from our announcement today I wanted to highlight. First, a key part of our mission is to put very capable AI tools in the hands of people for free (or at a great price). I am very proud that we’ve made the best model in the world available for free in ChatGPT, without ads or anything like that.  Our initial conception when we started OpenAI was that we’d create AI and use it to create all sorts of benefits for the world. Instead, it now looks like we’ll create AI and then other people will use it to create all sorts of amazing things that we all benefit from.  We are a business and will find plenty of things to charge for, and that will help us provide free, outstanding AI service to (hopefully) billions of people.  Second, the new voice (and video) mode is the best computer interface I’ve ever used. It feels like AI from the movies; and it’s still a bit surprising to me that it’s real. Getting to human-level response times and expressiveness turns out to be a big change. The original ChatGPT showed a hint of what was possible with language interfaces; this new thing feels viscerally different. It is fast, smart, fun, natural, and helpful.Talking to a computer has never felt really natural for me; now it does. As we add (optional) personalization, access to your information, the ability to take actions on your behalf, and more, I can really see an exciting future where we are able to use computers to do much more than ever before. Finally, huge thanks to the team that poured so much work into making this happen!
A founder recently asked me how to stop caring what other people think. I didn’t have an answer, and after reflecting on it more, I think it's the wrong question. Almost everyone cares what someone thinks (though caring what everyone thinks is definitely a mistake), and it's probably important. Caring too much makes you a sheep. But you need to be at least a little in tune with others to do something useful for them. It seems like there are two degrees of freedom: you can choose the people whose opinions you care about (and on what subjects), and you can choose the timescale you care about them on. Most people figure out the former [1] but the latter doesn’t seem to get much attention. The most impressive people I know care a lot about what people think, even people whose opinions they really shouldn’t value (a surprising numbers of them do something like keeping a folder of screenshots of tweets from haters). But what makes them unusual is that they generally care about other people’s opinions on a very long time horizon—as long as the history books get it right, they take some pride in letting the newspapers get it wrong.  You should trade being short-term low-status for being long-term high-status, which most people seem unwilling to do. A common way this happens is by eventually being right about an important but deeply non-consensus bet. But there are lots of other ways–the key observation is that as long as you are right, being misunderstood by most people is a strength not a weakness. You and a small group of rebels get the space to solve an important problem that might otherwise not get solved.  [1] In the memorable words of Coco Chanel, “I don’t care what you think about me. I don’t think about you at all.”
Almost every company and non-profit working on COVID-19 that I offered to help asked for support with clinical trials—for companies focusing on developing novel drugs, vaccines, and diagnostics, rapidly spinning up trials is one of their biggest bottlenecks.  Science remains the only way out of the COVID-19 crisis. Dramatically improving clinical trials, which are usually time-consuming and cost tens to hundreds of millions of dollars, is one of the highest-leverage ways to get out of it faster.   The goal of this project, in collaboration with TrialSpark and Dr. Mark Fishman, is to offer much better clinical trial support to COVID-19 projects than anything that currently exists. Project Covalence’s platform, powered by TrialSpark, is uniquely optimized to support COVID-19 trials, which are ideally run in community settings or at the patient’s home to reduce the burden placed on hospitals and health systems. Project Covalence is well-positioned to tackle the operational and logistical challenges involved in launching such trials, and supports trial execution, 21 CFR Part 11 compliant remote data collection, telemedicine, biostatistics, sample kits for at-home specimen collection, and protocol writing.  Researchers across academia and industry can leverage this shared infrastructure to rapidly launch their clinical trials. To facilitate coordination between studies, we will also be creating master protocols for platform studies to enable shared control arms and adaptive trial designs. If you’re interested in getting involved or have a trial that needs support, please get in touch at [email protected] or visit www.projectcovalence.com.
Experts on the COVID-19 pandemic seem to think there are three ways out—that is, for life, health, and the economy to return roughly to normal.  Either we get a vaccine good enough that R0 for the world goes below 1, a good enough treatment that people no longer need to be afraid, or we develop a great culture of testing, contract tracing, masks, and isolation. I wish that the federal government were doing much more—it would be great to see even a few percent of the recent stimulus bill go to funding R+D.  But they don’t seem to be funding enough science, and although I think concerns about the private sector and philanthropy doing what the government is supposed to be doing are somewhat valid, there isn’t a great alternative right now. On the positive side, I have never seen a field focused on one problem with such ferocity before.  The response of biotech companies and research labs is amazing, and the speed they are operating at seems to have increased by more than 10x.  It’s the best of the spirit of innovation, and it’s inspiring to see what these companies and research labs are doing. Scientists can get us out of this.  What they need are money and connections. Investors and donors—this is where we can help.  Please consider shifting some of your focus and capital to scientific efforts addressing the pandemic.  (And future pandemics too—I think this will be a before-and-after moment in the world, and until we can defend against new viruses quickly, things are going to be different.) The learning curve is quick, and there are a lot of experts willing to help you with diligence.  It feels good to do something that might be useful, it’s interesting to do something totally new, and it will make you more optimistic. If you make it known to your network that you want to fund efforts working on COVID-19, you’ll get flooded with opportunities.  And it’s always good to invest where the best founders are congregating.
Hard startups, characterized by significant investment and technological challenges, often enjoy an advantage over easy startups due to their inherent value and ability to attract talented individuals. While easy startups may seem accessible, their success is often hindered by limited impact and competition for skilled professionals.A startup's success depends on its ability to attract and retain talent, which is drawn to meaningful missions and ambitious visions. Hard startups offer a compelling narrative that aligns with individuals' aspirations and drives their commitment.As a startup grows, it faces the challenge of attracting and retaining enough talented people, eventually reaching a threshold where its progress is limited. In contrast, hard startups benefit from a supportive ecosystem that values dedication to significant problems.Silicon Valley's culture encourages serious endeavors, allowing founders to secure funding for ambitious ventures without extensive credentials or experience. By embracing a long-term perspective and relentless pursuit of ambitious goals, startups can gain a competitive edge.Hard startups provide a tailwind of support, facilitating hiring, partnerships, and fundraising. They also allow for compounding advantages over time, as most competitors operate on shorter timeframes.While startups with small teams can also be successful, compensation packages from tech giants are driving a trend towards larger teams. Hard startups offer a compelling opportunity for those willing to make a long-term commitment to solving significant problems and shaping the future.