Three Observations Note
Sam Altman

Three Observations

Our mission is to ensure that Artificial General Intelligence benefits all of humanity. AGI is a system that can tackle complex problems at a human level in many fields, and it is considered the next tool in human progress. The steady march of human innovation has brought unprecedented levels of prosperity and improvements to people's lives, and AGI is expected to accelerate this progress. In a decade, everyone on earth may be capable of accomplishing more than the most impactful person can today.The economics of AI development are characterized by rapid progress, with the intelligence of an AI model roughly equal to the log of the resources used to train and run it. The cost to use a given level of AI falls about 10x every 12 months, and the socioeconomic value of linearly increasing intelligence is super-exponential in nature. These trends are expected to continue, leading to significant impacts on society.AI agents, such as virtual co-workers, are being rolled out, and they will eventually be capable of doing most things a human can do in their field. The world will not change all at once, but the long-term changes to our society and economy will be huge. Agency, willfulness, and determination will be extremely valuable, and AGI will enable individual people to have more impact than ever before.The impact of AGI will be uneven, with some industries changing very little, while scientific progress will likely be much faster than it is today. The price of many goods will eventually fall dramatically, and the price of luxury goods and limited resources may rise. Public policy and collective opinion on how to integrate AGI into society matter a lot, and ensuring that the benefits of AGI are broadly distributed is critical.The balance of power between capital and labor could easily get messed up, and this may require early intervention. Ideas like giving everyone on Earth a "compute budget" to use AI or driving the cost of intelligence as low as possible may be necessary to ensure that everyone has access to unlimited genius.