Scoop: Mike Johnson's cautious optimism on early voting

House Speaker Mike Johnson and his data team are cautiously optimistic that Republicans are leading in early voting this cycle, following former President Trump's change of heart on early voting. In Nevada's 3rd District, Republicans have a 1% advantage in returned ballots compared to a 10-percentage-point deficit four years ago. Similarly, in California's 47th District, Republicans are even with Democrats in returned ballots, whereas they were down by 15 percentage points in 2020. The NRCC is working to get Republicans to vote for Donald Trump and a Republican House majority, and their efforts seem to be paying off. However, Democrats view the early numbers as reliable Republican voters and not a massive wave of new GOP votes. Early voting has changed due to the pandemic, making it easier for Americans to vote earlier. The parties do not know how independents are voting in early ballots, which could potentially change the outcome. Ultimately, early leads can vanish, and the final results will only be known when everything is counted.