Fixed income investors face market anxieties this Halloween due to deteriorating developed market fundamentals. Volatility convergence between emerging and developed markets is increasing amid high debt levels in developed nations. Labor market confidence is declining, signaling a potential recession. US interest payments on debt exceed the defense budget, impacting citizen services and growth. A weakening consumer and restrictive monetary policy have caused a decline in freight activity. The Cass Freight Index approaches levels seen during the Global Financial Crisis, indicating a slowdown. Bonds are now more attractive than equities, offering higher returns compared to stretched equity valuations. London housing starts and sales have fallen to Global Financial Crisis lows, hinting at an economic slowdown. US auto loan delinquencies are rising significantly, reflecting consumer weakness, nearing Global Financial Crisis levels. The author presents these indicators as potential "scary" realities for the market.
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