Stocks Break Six-Week Win-Streak, Gold Hits Record High As 'Trump Trade' Takes Off

The theme of the week was a mix of good, bad, and ugly news in the markets. The good news was that macro data continued to outperform expectations, raising doubts about the pace of the Federal Reserve's easing cycle. However, rate-cut expectations plummeted, especially for 2025, which some attributed to politics. The "ugly" theme was the Trump-Trade taking off in stocks and prediction markets, with Trump's victory expectations rising. Despite this, the broad market was lower, with the S&P 500 closing down around 1% on the week. Mega-cap tech had a wild week, with Nvidia and Tesla surging to new highs. Bonds had a rough week, with yields spiking after a Washington Post article refused to endorse Kamala Harris. The dollar rallied for the fourth straight week, while gold hit a new intraday record high. Bitcoin ended the week lower due to Tether headlines and a tech wreck, and crude prices were higher but choppy. Finally, the US CDS signaled a "sweep" trade, with gridlock seen as good and a red or blue sweep seen as bad.