Ascend Analytics predicts ERCOT's peak demand could reach 120 GW by 2030, a significant increase though lower than ERCOT's own forecasts. Gas turbine shortages, long development timelines, and interconnection challenges hinder new generation capacity. Ascend argues ERCOT's energy-only market lacks revenue certainty for crucial dispatchable generation, and market signal inconsistencies weaken investment decisions. A surge in large load requests, primarily from data centers and industry, has outpaced the grid's ability to connect new generation. Ascend's lower demand estimate accounts for delays and proposed load attrition, highlighting forecasting difficulties. Limited generation availability is identified as the primary constraint by Ascend executives. Supply chain hurdles and bottlenecks in engineering, procurement, and construction further impede new generation development. Ascend anticipates healthy reserve margins until 2026, followed by a squeeze as demand outpaces supply additions, sparking discussions on market reforms like "bring-your-own-new-generation" requirements. Financial challenges, particularly for storage projects, stem from lenders' concerns about uncontracted revenues and ERCOT's market design relying on scarcity pricing. This market structure risks either insufficient revenue for new entry or affordability crises due to volatile prices.