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The Bear Necessities: A Look at the Drivers, Dynamics, and Applications of the Pro-Russia Influence Ecosystem
Russia's pro-influence ecosystem, initially focused on supporting the Ukraine war, has evolved into a global strategic asset. This evolution includes expedited development of new influence assets and a resurgence of pro-Russia hacktivism. The shift indicates a growing focus beyond Ukraine, potentially intensifying influence operations targeting the EU and NATO. The war has served as a critical feedback loop, refining Russia's influence activities for global application. Increasingly, generative AI is being used for planning, research, and content creation in these operations. New actors are adopting influence tactics, signaling Russia's reliance on these cost-effective methods. The interconnected nature of this ecosystem makes it resilient to disruptions. Russia's influence strategy, rooted in Soviet-era "active measures," now blends overt and covert digital operations. Core objectives include diminishing Western primacy, retaining regional dominance, and ensuring domestic political stability. Targeting has pivoted from Ukraine to a broader scope including the US, Europe, the "Near Abroad," the Middle East, Africa, and domestic Russia. Tactics like narrative resonance, cyber-enabled influence, media mimicry, and direct dissemination are employed. The ecosystem comprises diverse components, from official channels to deniable covert actions, operating in a self-sustaining manner. This interconnectedness enhances the utility of Russian influence operations.