Thursday Thoughts: Why Anthrop... Note

Thursday Thoughts: Why Anthropic Is the Next AWS, but Potentially Worse

AI-native companies are following a pattern similar to early cloud adoption, starting with basic integration and later undergoing architectural changes. Anthropic, much like AWS a decade ago, is demonstrating a similar core business strategy, but at a much faster pace. The primary asset for companies like Anthropic and cloud providers is not just the underlying technology but the ability to rent access to it. AWS historically grew by observing successful startups on its platform and then launching its own competing managed services. This competitive strategy led to licensing changes and forks in projects like Elasticsearch, MongoDB, Redis, and HashiCorp's Terraform.However, this ecosystem "eating" by AWS ultimately allowed surviving companies to differentiate and compete on product rather than just underlying code. Anthropic is now replicating this pattern at an accelerated rate, launching first-party solutions that directly compete with startups building on its models. Examples include Claude Design challenging Figma, Claude for Legal competing with legal AI startups, and Claude Science offering a research workbench. This rapid expansion across various verticals raises concerns about the ecosystem's ability to adapt. While AWS primarily operated at the infrastructure layer, Anthropic is directly competing at the application level, posing a greater threat to its partners.A counterargument suggests Anthropic may lack the deep domain expertise AWS cultivated, potentially leading to "batteries included" default solutions that power users eventually outgrow. AWS, however, also proactively built a robust startup incubation ecosystem, a capability Anthropic currently lacks. The speed and breadth of Anthropic's moves present a significant challenge to the startups relying on its platform, leaving their long-term survival uncertain.