In 2015, Collaborative Fund invested $5 million in a single startup, which returned over $100 million, quadrupling the entire fund. This outcome was not just lucky, but a deliberate choice rooted in conviction. Venture capital returns follow a power law, where a tiny fraction of investments generate the majority of returns. The challenge is structuring a portfolio to catch at least one breakout outcome without over-diversifying and diluting returns. Many funds use math to guide portfolio construction, but no model perfectly captures the reality of venture capital. The Kelly Criterion, back of the envelope power law math, and Monte Carlo simulations are some of the frameworks used, but each has its limitations. These models suggest that early-stage funds should aim for 25-40 investments per fund to balance the potential for capturing breakout winners while avoiding excessive dilution. However, portfolio construction is not just math, but strategy, and conviction plays a significant role in making investment decisions. The decision to allocate $5 million to a single company was not model-driven, but based on conviction, and this experience reinforced the importance of conviction in portfolio construction.