Ugly, Tailing 20Y Auction Pric... Note

Ugly, Tailing 20Y Auction Prices At 2nd Highest Yield On Record; Would Have Been Highest If Bessent Hadn't Panicked

Today's 20-year Treasury auction saw weak demand despite the Treasury doubling buyback operations. The auction priced at 5.204%, higher than the previous month, and slightly above the when-issued rate. This indicated lackluster demand even with the intervention. Treasury Undersecretary Bessent likely panicked because the auction was set to be the highest yielding on record. His intervention, designed to lower yields, succeeded in making today's the second-highest yielding auction. The bid-to-cover ratio was 2.53, the lowest since February and one of the lowest on record. Foreign buyer participation, or Indirects, dropped to 62.9%, the lowest since February. Directs increased their stake, a trend that often reverses with Indirects' movements. Dealers took 12.5%, which was in line with the recent average. Overall, the auction was poor, though less so due to Treasury intervention. The intervention's effectiveness in stabilizing the bond market is expected to be short-lived.
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