Underreported Polling Suggests Trump Is Poised To Win PA

Donald Trump is leading in Pennsylvania polls, which could indicate a potential win for him in the state. In the past, Trump has performed better in Pennsylvania elections than polls suggested, with Clinton leading by nine points in 2016 and Biden leading by six points in 2020. Trump led in only two of 59 polls in 2016 and five of 84 polls in 2020, but he has led in 13 of 17 polls this cycle. Factors contributing to Trump's lead include "shy Trump voters" who are now more open about their support, regional biases, and the economy being the top issue for over 50% of Pennsylvanians. Trump has a commanding lead over Harris on economic issues. The shift in voter registration also favors Trump, with the Democratic registration advantage shrinking from 1.1 million to 350,000 since 2008. Mail-in balloting, which began during the 2020 Covid lockdowns, has seen a 3:1 advantage for Democratic applicants, but lack of enthusiasm for Biden's candidacy may help Republicans. Trump's polling strength in Pennsylvania is underreported and could be a significant factor in the 2024 election cycle.