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Vertically Integrated Nations, Production For Security, And Rate Cuts
Yields saw a slight recovery following a weaker-than-expected jobs report. The author remains confident the Federal Reserve will cut rates in September, citing less accurate inflation data and the market's current pricing. Recent headlines about AI, including OpenAI's potential stake and Meta's compute offers, highlight the rapid advancements in the field. This AI boom draws parallels to the dot-com era's fiber buildout, raising concerns about job displacement and potential political backlash. Academy Securities has been discussing "ProSec 2026," emphasizing national production for security and resilience, a concept evolving from ESG. This global trend is expected to continue regardless of election outcomes. The author frames nations as organisms, prioritizing ProSec industries. Key ProSec industries, akin to "air" for a nation, include electricity generation, semiconductors, and fresh water. Refined rare earths, critical minerals, and defense sectors, particularly drones and space capabilities, are considered the strategic "water" equivalents. The author stresses the importance of processing and refining over raw extraction for critical materials.