Coffee prices are increasing due to a combination of global supply issues and U.S. tariffs. Arabica coffee futures have risen significantly, driven by concerns over reduced supplies from Brazil and Vietnam. Volatile weather in these major coffee-producing regions has impacted crop estimates. Specifically, Brazil's 2025 arabica coffee crop forecast was recently cut, with warnings of further price hikes due to U.S. tariffs. President Trump's 50% tariffs on Brazilian imports have added upward pressure to coffee prices. Consumers are already seeing higher prices, with ground coffee reaching a record high and coffee experiencing significant inflation. Companies like J.M. Smucker have already increased prices twice and anticipate further increases due to these tariffs. While tariffs are a new factor, weather volatility has been a persistent issue, with severe droughts affecting Brazil and Vietnam. However, recent rains in Brazil and an improved outlook from Vietnam offer some hope for price stabilization. Brazil's president is engaging in trade talks, including with BRICS nations, to address U.S. trade policies and potentially negotiate on tariffs.